Kei te pāngia te ōhanga o te ao e te piki me te heke o te mekameka tuku taonga, kāore i kitea i mua i ēnei rā tata nei.
Kua whakamāramahia e ngā whakahaere e tohu ana i ngā umanga waituhi tā i ngā wāhanga rerekē o Ūropi te āhua morearea me te wero o ngā take mekameka tuku e pā ana ki te rāngai i a ia e anga atu ana ki te tau 2022.
TeTe Rōpū Waituhi Tānga o Ūropi (EuPIA)kua whakamāramahia te meka kua hangaia e te mate urutā coronavirus ngā āhuatanga whakakotahi e rite ana ki ngā āhuatanga e hiahiatia ana mō tētahi tupuhi tino pai. Ko te huihuinga o ngā āhuatanga rerekē e kitea ana inaianei he tino pānga ki te mekameka tuku katoa.
Ko te nuinga o ngā tohunga ōhanga me ngā tohunga mekameka tuku e whakaaro ana kei te pāngia te ōhanga o te ao e te piki me te heke o te mekameka tuku i ngā wā tata nei. Kei te piki haere tonu te hiahia mō ngā hua i tua atu i te tuku, ā, nā reira, kua tino pāngia te wātea o ngā rauemi mata me ngā utanga o te ao.
Nā te mate urutā o te ao i akiaki i tēnei āhuatanga, e aukati tonu ana i ngā mahi hanga i roto i te maha o ngā whenua, i kino ake te āhua o te hoko a ngā kaihoko kāinga i ngā taonga maha atu i te wā noa, i waho atu hoki i ngā wā tino pukumahi. Tuarua, nā te whakaoranga o te ōhanga o te ao i te wā kotahi huri noa i te ao i piki ake ai te tono.
Nā ngā raruraru mekameka tuku e pāngia ana e ngā matea wehenga mate urutā me te korenga o ngā kaimahi me ngā taraiwa kua uaua ake ai, ā, i Haina, nā te hekenga o te putanga mai i te Kaupapa Whakaiti Pūngao Hainamana, me te korenga o ngā rauemi mata matua, kua nui ake ai te raruraru o te umanga.
Ngā Āwangawanga Matua
Mō ngā kaihanga waituhi tā me ngā paninga, he maha ngā wero kei te puta mai i te korenga o ngā waka me ngā rauemi mata, e ai ki ngā mea e whai ake nei:
• Ko te kore taurite o te tuku me te tono mō ngā rauemi mata nui e whakamahia ana i roto i te hanga waituhi tā—hei tauira, ngā hinu huawhenua me ō rātou hua, ngā matū hinu, ngā tae me te TiO2—kei te whakararuraru nui i ngā kamupene mema o EuPIA. Ko ngā rauemi o ēnei kāwai katoa, ki tētahi taumata rerekē, kei te piki haere te tono, engari kei te herea tonu te tuku. Nā te piki haere o te hiahia i aua wāhi kua piki ake te uaua o ngā kaha o ngā kaihoko ki te matapae me te whakamahere i ngā tuku.
• Kua piki ake te rahi o ngā tae, tae atu ki te TiO2, nā te pikinga o te tono me te kati o ngā wheketere i Haina nā te Kaupapa Whakaiti Pūngao Hainamana. Kua piki ake te tono mō te hanga peita hoahoanga mō te TiO2 (nā te mea kua piki ake te hiahia mō te wāhanga DIY o te ao nā te noho o ngā kaihoko ki te kāinga) me te hanga tāhū hau.
• _x0007_Kua pāngia te tukunga o ngā hinu huawhenua waro e ngā āhuatanga kino o te rangi i te USA me Amerika Latina. Engari, i rite tonu tēnei ki ngā kawemai a Haina, ā, kua piki ake te kai o tēnei wāhanga rauemi mata.
• _x0007_Ngā matū hinu—ngā kapia me ngā whakarewa ka taea te whakaora i te UV, te polyurethane me te kiriaku—kua piki haere te utu mai i te tīmatanga o te tau 2020, ā, ko ētahi o ēnei rauemi kua piki ake te tono e nui ake ana i ngā taumata e tumanakohia ana. Hei tāpiri, kua kite te umanga i te maha o ngā āhuatanga kāore i te pai kua whakawhāiti i te tuku me te whakanui ake i tētahi āhuatanga kāore i te pumau.
I te piki haere tonu o ngā utu, me te iti haere o te tuku, kei te tino pāngia ngā kaihanga waituhi tā me ngā kaihanga paninga e te whakataetae nui mō ngā rauemi me ngā rauemi.
Heoi, kāore ngā wero e pā ana ki te umanga i te herea noa ki ngā tuku matū me te hinu-matū. Kei te pāngia hoki ētahi atu āhuatanga o te umanga pērā i te takai, te utanga me te kawe waka.
• _x0007_Kei te raru tonu te umanga i te korenga o te maitai mō ngā pahu me ngā rauemi HDPE e whakamahia ana mō ngā peere me ngā hāte. Ko te pikinga ake o te tono i roto i te hokohoko ipurangi kei te akiaki i te iti o te tuku o ngā pouaka kowakawaka me ngā whakaurunga. Ko te tohatoha rauemi, te whakaroa i te whakaputanga, ngā rauemi, ngā āhuatanga rerekē me te korenga o ngā kaimahi kei te whai wāhi katoa ki te pikinga o te takai. Kei te piki haere tonu te nui o te tono i runga ake i te tuku.
• _x0007_Nā te mate urutā i nui ake ngā mahi hokohoko a ngā kaihoko (i te wā kati me muri i ngā rā kati), ā, i puta ai he tono rerekē i roto i ngā ahumahi maha, ā, i whakararuraru hoki i te kaha o ngā utanga rererangi me te moana. Kua piki ake ngā utu wahie waka rererangi me ngā utu ipu kaipuke (i ētahi huarahi mai i Āhia-Moana-nui-a-Kiwa ki Ūropi me/ranei te USA, kua piki ake ngā utu ipu 8-10x te nui ake i te tikanga). Kua puta ake ngā wātaka utanga moana rerekē, ā, kua noho pōrearea ngā kaikawe utanga, kua uaua rānei ki te kimi tauranga hei tango i ngā ipu. Ko te whakakotahitanga o te pikinga o te tono me ngā ratonga kawe waka kāore i te rite kua hua ake he korenga nui o te kaha utanga.
• _x0007_Nā te mate urutā, kua whakatinanahia ngā tikanga hauora me te haumaru i ngā tauranga o te ao, ā, e pā ana tēnei ki te kaha me te nui o ngā kaipuke e tukuna ana. Ko te nuinga o ngā kaipuke utanga moana kei te ngaro i ā rātou wā taenga kua whakaritea, ā, ko ngā kaipuke kāore e tae mai i te wā tika ka pāngia e ngā whakaroa i a rātou e tatari ana kia tuwhera ngā wāhi hou. Nā tēnei i piki haere ai ngā utu kaipuke mai i te ngahuru o te tau 2020.
• _x0007_He nui te korenga o ngā taraiwa taraka i roto i ngā rohe maha, engari ko te mea tino kitea tēnei puta noa i Ūropi. Ahakoa ehara tēnei korenga i te mea hou, ā, kua 15 tau pea te roa o te āwangawanga, kua piki haere tonu nā te mate urutā o te ao.
I taua wā tonu, i whakaatuhia e tētahi o ngā whakawhitiwhitinga kōrero hou mai i te British Coatings Federation i te tīmatanga o te ngahuru o te tau 2021, kua piki ake te utu o ngā rauemi mata e pā ana ki ngā rāngai peita me te waituhi tā i te UK, ko te tikanga kua nui ake ngā pēhanga utu mō ngā kaihanga. Nā te mea ko ngā rauemi mata te 50% o ngā utu katoa o te umanga, ā, me te piki haere hoki o ētahi atu utu pēnei i te pūngao, kāore e taea te whakanui rawa i te pānga ki te rāngai.
Kua neke atu i te rua te pikinga o ngā utu hinu i roto i ngā marama 12 kua pahure ake nei, ā, kua piki ake mā te 250% mai i te iti rawa o te utu hinu i mua i te mate urutā o Poutū-te-rangi 2020, he nui atu i te pikinga nui i kitea i te wā o te raruraru utu hinu i arahina e te OPEC i te tau 1973/4, ā, nō nā tata nei ko ngā pikinga utu tere i pūrongohia i te tau 2007 me te 2008 i te mea e anga atu ana te ōhanga o te ao ki te hinganga ōhanga. I te US$83/para, ko ngā utu hinu i te tīmatanga o Whiringa-ā-rangi i piki ake i te toharite o US$42 i te marama o Hepetema i te tau kua hipa.
Pānga ki te Ahumahi Waituhi
He tino kino te pānga ki ngā kaihanga peita me te waituhi tā, ā, kua piki ake ngā utu whakarewa i te 82% i te toharite i tērā o te tau kua hipa, ā, kua piki ake te utu o ngā kapia me ngā rauemi e pā ana ki te 36%.
Kua rua, kua toru rānei te pikinga o ngā utu mō ētahi whakarewa matua e whakamahia ana e te umanga, ā, ko ētahi tauira nui ko te n-butanol, mai i te £750 mō ia tana ki te £2,560 i roto i te tau. Kua rua, kua toru rānei te pikinga o ngā utu mō te n-butyl acetate, te methoxypropanol me te methoxypropyl acetate.
I kitea anō hoki he pikinga ake o ngā utu mō ngā kapia me ngā rauemi e pā ana, ā, hei tauira, ko te utu toharite mō te kapia epoxy otinga kua piki ake mā te 124% i te marama o Hepetema 2021 ki te whakaritea ki te marama o Hepetema 2020.
I ētahi atu wāhi, he nui ake ngā utu o te tae tae, ā, he 9% te teitei ake o ngā utu TiO2 i tērā o te tau kua hipa. Mō ngā takai, he teitei ake ngā utu puta noa, hei tauira, ko ngā tīni porowhita e rima rita te pikinga ake o te 10% me ngā utu o ngā pahu i te marama o Oketopa, he 40% te teitei ake.
He uaua te whakaputa matapae pono, engari i te mea e matapaetia ana e te nuinga o ngā whakahaere matapae nui ka noho tonu ngā utu hinu ki runga ake i te US$70/para mō te tau 2022, e tohu ana ngā tohu ka noho tonu ngā utu teitei ake.
Ka Whakaōritehia ngā Utu Hinu i te tau '22
I taua wā tonu, e ai ki te Energy Information Administration (EIA) o Amerika, e kī ana te Tirohanga Pūngao Poto-Wā, mā te pikinga ake o te hanga hinu mata me ngā hua hinu mai i ngā whenua OPEC+ me te USA ka piki ake ngā taonga hinu wai o te ao, ka heke hoki ngā utu hinu mata i te tau 2022.
Kua hipa ake te whakamahinga hinu mata o te ao i te whakaputanga hinu mata mō ngā hauwhā e rima karapīpiti, mai i te hauwhā tuatoru o te tau 2020. I roto i tēnei wā, kua heke ngā rawa hinu i ngā whenua OECD mā te 424 miriona oko, arā, 13%. I matapaetia ka hipa ake te tono hinu mata o te ao i te tuku o te ao tae noa ki te mutunga o te tau, ka whai wāhi atu ki ētahi atu kukume rawa, ā, ka pupuri i te utu hinu mata o Brent ki runga ake i te US$80/oko tae noa ki Hakihea 2021.
Ko te matapae a te EIA ka tīmata te nui haere o ngā rawa hinu o te ao i te tau 2022, nā te pikinga ake o te hanga mai i ngā whenua OPEC+ me te USA, engari me te puhoi haere o te tipu o te tono hinu o te ao.
Tērā pea ka heke te utu o Brent i tēnei panonitanga, ka eke ki te US$72/para i te tau 2022.
Kua piki ake ngā utu wāhi o Brent, he tohu paearu hinu mata o te ao, me West Texas Intermediate (WTI), he tohu paearu hinu mata o Amerika, mai i ō rātou taumata iti rawa i te marama o Paenga-whāwhā 2020, ā, kua piki ake inaianei i ngā taumata i mua i te mate urutā.
I te marama o Oketopa 2021, ko te utu toharite o te hinu mata o Brent ko US$84/peera, ā, ko te utu toharite o te WTI ko US$81/peera, koinei ngā utu ingoa teitei rawa atu mai i te marama o Oketopa 2014. E matapaetia ana e te EIA ka heke te utu o Brent mai i te toharite o te US$84/peera i te marama o Oketopa 2021 ki te US$66/peera i te marama o Tīhema 2022, ā, ka heke te utu o te WTI mai i te toharite o te US$81/peera ki te US$62/peera puta noa i taua wā anō.
Nā te iti o ngā taonga hinu mata, puta noa i te ao me te USA, kua piki ake te utu o ngā kirimana hinu mata kua tata te rā, engari he iti iho ngā utu o ngā kirimana hinu mata kua roa te rā, e tohu ana i ngā tumanakohanga mō tētahi mākete taurite ake i te tau 2022.
Wā tuku: Oketopa-31-2022
