Ko te tohu matua tuatahi, me te mea nui hoki mō te hunga e arotake ana i ngā whai wāhitanga, ko te taupori, e whakatau ana i te rahi o te mākete katoa e taea te aro atu (TAM). Koinei te take i kukume ai ngā kamupene ki Haina me aua kaihoko katoa.
Haunga te rahi nui, ko te hanganga tau o te taupori, ngā whiwhinga moni me te whanaketanga o ngā mākete whakamahinga mutunga pumau me ngā mākete whakamahinga mutunga kore pumau, me ētahi atu āhuatanga ka pā ki te tono mō te kapia kirihou.
Engari i te mutunga, i muri i te aromatawai i ēnei āhuatanga katoa, kotahiwehewehea te tono mā te taupori hei tataute tono mō ia tangata, he tatauranga matua mō te whakatairite i ngā mākete rerekē.
Kua tīmata ngā kairangahau taupori ki te whakaaro anō ki te tipu o te taupori ā muri ake nei, ā, e whakatau ana rātou ka tere ake te pikinga o te taupori o te ao, ka heke iho hoki nā te hekenga o te momonatanga i Āwherika, me te iti o te momonatanga i Haina me ētahi atu whenua kāore pea e ora anō. Tērā pea ka huri tēnei i ngā whakaaro me ngā nekehanga o te mākete o te ao.
Kua piki te taupori o Haina mai i te 546 miriona i te tau 1950 ki te 1.43 piriona i te tau 2020. Nā te kaupapa here kotahi-tamaiti i waenganui i te tau 1979 ki te 2015 i heke ai te momonatanga, he rerekē te ōwehenga tāne/wahine, me te pikinga o te taupori, ā, kua whakakapia a Haina e Īnia hei whenua tino taupori.
E matapaetia ana e te Kotahitanga o ngā Whenua o te Ao ka heke te taupori o Haina ki te 1.26 piriona i te tau 2050, ā, ki te 767 miriona i te tau 2100. Kua heke iho ēnei mā te 53 miriona me te 134 miriona, ia, mai i ngā matapae o mua a te Kotahitanga o ngā Whenua o te Ao.
E pātaihia ana ngā whakapae taupori kei muri i ēnei matapae e ngā tātaritanga tata nei a ngā kaimātai taupori (Shanghai Academy of Sciences, Victoria University of Australia, me ētahi atu), ā, e matapaetia ana ka heke te taupori o Haina ki te 1.22 piriona i te tau 2050 me te 525 miriona i te tau 2100.
Ngā pātai mō ngā tatauranga whānautanga
Kua pātai a Yi Fuxian, te kairangahau taupori o Te Whare Wānanga o Wisconsin, i ngā whakapae mō te taupori Hainamana o nāianei me te ara pea e haere ake nei. I tirotirohia e ia ngā raraunga taupori o Haina, ā, i kitea e ia he rerekētanga mārama, he rerekētanga auau hoki, pērā i te kore taurite i waenga i ngā whānautanga kua pūrongohia me te maha o ngā kano kano tamariki i tukuna me te whakaurunga ki te kura tuatahi.
Me rite tonu ēnei ki tētahi ki tētahi, engari kāore. E kite ana ngā kaitātari he kaha ngā akiaki mō ngā kāwanatanga ā-rohe ki te whakanui ake i ngā raraunga. E whakaata ana i te Occam's Razor, ko te whakamārama māmā rawa ko te korenga o ngā whānautanga i puta.
E kī ana a Yi ko te taupori o Haina i te tau 2020 he 1.29 piriona, ehara i te 1.42 piriona, he iti iho i te 130 miriona. Ko te āhua nei te mea tino kino i te raki-mā-rāwhiti o Haina, i te wā kua mutu te mahi ōhanga. I whakapae a Yi, me te iti o ngā reiti whānau – 0.8 ki te taumata whakakapinga o te 2.1 – ka heke te taupori o Haina ki te 1.10 piriona i te tau 2050 me te 390 miriona i te tau 2100. Kia mahara kei a ia tētahi atu matapae pouri.
Kua kite tātou i ētahi atu whakatau tata e kī ana ko te taupori o Haina ka iti iho i te 250 miriona i tērā e pūrongohia ana i tēnei wā. Tata ki te 40% o te tono mō ngā kapia kirihou o te ao e ahu mai ana i Haina, ā, nō reira, he nui te awe o ngā āhuatanga rerekē e pā ana ki te taupori me ētahi atu āhuatanga ki te hihiri o te tono mō ngā kapia kirihou o te ao.
He nui rawa te tono mō ngā kapia mō ia tangata o Haina i tēnei wā, ki te whakaritea ki te nuinga o ngā ōhanga matatau, nā te nui o ngā kirihou i roto i ngā taonga kua oti te kaweake me te tūranga o Haina hei "wheketere ki te ao". Kei te rerekē tēnei.
Te whakaatu i ngā horopaki
I runga i tēnei whakaaro, i tirohia e mātou ētahi o ngā whakaaro a Yi Fuxian, ā, i whakawhanakehia he horopaki rerekē e pā ana ki te heke mai pea mō te taupori o Haina me te tono kirihou. Hei pūtake, ka whakamahia e mātou ngā matapae a te UN mō te taupori o Haina mō te tau 2024.
I whakahoutia tēnei matapae hou a te UN mō te taupori o Haina ki raro iho i ngā aromatawai o mua. Kātahi ka whakamahia e mātou ngā matapae hou o te pātengi raraunga ICIS Supply & Demand ki te tau 2050.
E whakaatu ana tēnei i te pikinga o te tono nui mō ngā kapia mō ia tangata i Haina – arā, ko te acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) me te polyvinyl chloride (PVC) – mai i te tata ki te 73kg i te tau 2020 ki te 144kg i te tau 2050.
I tirotirohia anō hoki e mātou te wā i muri i te tau 2050, ā, i whakaarohia ka piki ake te hiahia mō ngā kapia mō ia tangata ki te 150kg i ngā tau 2060, kātahi ka heke iho i te mutunga o te rautau – ki te 141kg i te tau 2100 – he whakawhiti me te ara e kitea ana i ngā ōhanga e pakeke haere ana. Hei tauira, ko te hiahia mō ia tangata o te US mō ēnei kapia i eke ki tōna taumata ki te 101kg i te tau 2004.
Mō tētahi atu horopaki, i whakaaro mātou ko te taupori o te tau 2020 he 1.42 piriona, engari ko te toharite o te reiti momona i roto i ngā tau kei te heke mai ko te 0.75 whānautanga, ka hua ake he taupori o te tau 2050 he 1.15 piriona me te taupori o te 2100 he 373 miriona. I tapaina e mātou te horopaki ko te Dire Demographics.
I tēnei horopaki, i whakaaro anō mātou nā ngā wero ōhanga, ka tere ake te pakeke o te tono mō ngā kapia, ā, ka iti iho te taumata. Ko te pūtake o tēnei ko te korenga o Haina e mawhiti i te tūnga o te hunga whiwhi moni waenga ki tētahi ōhanga matatau.
He nui rawa ngā ārai ōhanga e pā ana ki ngā āhuatanga taupori. I tēnei horopaki, ka ngaro te wāhi whakaputanga o te ao o Haina nā ngā kaupapa whakahounga o ngā whenua kē atu me ngā taupatupatu tauhokohoko, ā, ka iti ake te tono mō ngā kapia mai i ngā taonga kua oti te kaweake – he iti ake te ihirangi kirihou – i runga i te whakataurite ki te take taketake.
E whakaaro ana hoki mātou ka whai hua te rāngai ratonga hei wāhanga o te ōhanga Haina. Heoi anō, ko ngā take whenua me ngā nama ka pā ki te hihiri o te ōhanga tae noa ki ngā tau 2030. Kei te haere tonu ngā huringa hanganga. I tēnei tauira, i whakatauira mātou i te pikinga o te tono kapia mō ia tangata mai i te 73kg i te tau 2020 ki te 101kg i te tau 2050, ā, ka eke ki te 104kg te taumata teitei.
Ngā hua o ngā horopaki
I raro i te Take Tūāpapa, ka piki te tono nui mō ngā kapia mai i te 103.1 miriona tāne i te tau 2020, ā, ka tīmata te pakeke i ngā tau 2030, ka eke ki te 188.6 miriona tāne i te tau 2050. I muri i te tau 2050, ka pā kino te hekenga o te taupori me te whanaketanga o ngā āhuatanga mākete/ōhanga ki te tono, ka heke ki te 89.3 miriona tāne i te tau 2100. He taumata tēnei e rite ana ki te tono i mua i te tau 2020.
I te mea he tirohanga pōuri ake ki te taupori, me te hekenga o te hihiri ohaoha i raro i te horopaki Dire Demographics, ka piki te tono mō ngā kapia nui mai i te 103.1 miriona tana i te tau 2020, ā, ka tīmata te pakeke i ngā tau 2030, ka eke ki te 116.2 miriona tana i te tau 2050.
I te hekenga o te taupori me ngā āhuatanga kino o te ōhanga, ka heke te tono ki te 38.7 miriona tāne i te tau 2100, he taumata e rite ana ki te tono i mua i te tau 2010.
Ngā pānga ki te oranga whaiaro me te hokohoko
He pānga kei te whai mana motuhake o Haina ki te hanga kapia kirihou me tōna taurite hokohoko kupenga. I roto i te Take Tūāpapa, ka piki te hanga kapia nui o Haina mai i te 75.7 miriona tāne i te tau 2020 ki te 183.9 miriona tāne i te tau 2050.
E kī ana te Take Taketake kei te noho tonu a Haina hei whenua kawemai kupenga o ngā kapia nui, engari kua heke tōna tūranga kawemai kupenga mai i te 27.4 miriona tāne i te tau 2020 ki te 4.7 miriona tāne i te tau 2050. Ka arotahi noa mātou ki te wā tae noa ki te tau 2050.
I roto i te wā tata nei, ko te nuinga o te tuku o ngā kapia ka haere tonu i runga i te whakamahere, i te mea e whai ana a Haina kia whai rawa i a ia anō. Engari i te tekau tau 2030, ka puhoi te whakawhānui o te kaha i roto i te mākete o te ao kua nui rawa te tuku me te piki haere o ngā taupatupatu hokohoko.
Nā reira, i raro i te horopaki Dire Demographics, he nui atu i te rawaka te whakaputanga, ā, i te tīmatanga o te tekau tau 2030 ka eke a Haina ki te whai mana motuhake i roto i ēnei kapia, ā, ka puta hei kaihokohoko kupenga o te 3.6 miriona tāne i te tau 2035, 7.1 miriona tāne i te tau 2040, 9.7 miriona tāne i te tau 2045 me te 11.6 miriona tāne i te tau 2050.
I te āhua kino o te taupori me ngā āhuatanga ōhanga wero, ka tere ake te whakatutuki i te oranga motuhake me te tūranga kaweake kupenga, engari "ka taea" te whakamama i ngā raruraru tauhokohoko.
Ae, i āta tirohia e mātou te taupori, he heke mai e iti ana, e heke ana te hua. "Ko te taupori te mea i whakaritea," e ai ki te tohunga whakaaro Wīwī o te rautau 19, a Auguste Comte. Engari kāore te i whakaritea i te mea kua whakaritea. He heke mai pea tēnei.
Tērā atu anō ngā āpōpō pea, tae atu ki ngā āpōpō ka hoki mai ngā reiti whānau tamariki, ā, ka honoa ngā auahatanga hangarau hou hei whakarei ake i te hua, ā, ka tipu hoki te ōhanga. Engari mā te horopaki e whakaaturia ana i konei ka āwhina i ngā kamupene matū ki te whakaaro mō te koretake i roto i te huarahi hanganga, me te whakatau i ngā whakataunga e pā ana ki tō rātou āpōpō – kia tuhia ai ā rātou ake kōrero.
Te wā tuku: Hōngongoi-05-2025
